Three Numbers That Will Define Australian SMEs in 2026

As we head into 2026, Australian small business faces a familiar mix: cautious optimism from economists, lingering cost pressures from operations, and a policy environment that’s about to get harder. The businesses that navigate this successfully won’t be the ones with the best strategy decks. They’ll be the ones who know their numbers.

Here are the three figures every business owner should have cold heading into the new year.

1. Your energy cost exposure after December 31

The Energy Bill Relief Fund ends on December 31, 2025. The federal government has confirmed there will be no fourth round of rebates. For the past two years, households received up to $300 and small businesses up to $325 in annual subsidies. That support is now gone.

MYOB’s latest Business Monitor found that 30% of SMEs now cite energy costs as a source of high or extreme pressure — an 11-point jump in just six months. With the rebates ending and wholesale energy prices still elevated, that pressure is about to intensify.

The question isn’t whether your energy costs will rise. It’s whether you know by how much, and what that does to your margins. If you’re operating at 8% net margin and energy represents 5% of your cost base, a 20% increase in power costs wipes a full percentage point off your bottom line.

Do you know your actual energy cost as a percentage of revenue? Have you modelled the impact of the rebate removal? These aren’t theoretical questions anymore.

2. Your effective interest rate — and what happens if it moves

After three rate cuts in 2025 brought the cash rate to 3.60%, the outlook for 2026 has become genuinely uncertain. The RBA held rates steady in December, and inflation has ticked back up to 3.8% — above the target band.

The major banks are now split. CBA and NAB are forecasting rate rises in early 2026. ANZ and Westpac expect rates to hold or fall modestly. Some economists see potential for the cash rate to drop to 2.85% by late 2026; others see it climbing back toward 4%.

For business owners carrying debt, this uncertainty isn’t academic. A 50 basis point move in either direction changes your annual interest expense materially. If you’re on variable rates and haven’t stress-tested your cash flow against a rate rise, you’re exposed to a scenario the RBA itself is now actively considering.

The number to know: your debt service as a percentage of operating cash flow, and how it changes at 3.35%, 3.85%, and 4.10%.

3. Your cash runway — in weeks, not months

The 2025 CommBank/UNSW survey found that nearly 80% of Australian SMEs experienced cash flow impacts in the previous twelve months. NAB’s quarterly data shows cash flow remains the primary concern for 43% of small businesses heading into 2026.

But here’s the more revealing statistic: when asked what’s causing their cash flow problems, the most common answers were declining revenue (35%), low cash reserves (30%), and seasonal fluctuations (27%). These are symptoms, not causes. They describe what’s happening, not why.

The businesses that survive cash crunches aren’t the ones with more cash. They’re the ones who can see further ahead. They know their cash position in weeks, not months. They know which receivables are at risk, which payables are flexible, and how long they can sustain operations if revenue drops by 20%.

If you can’t answer the question “how many weeks of cash do I have at current burn rate?” without checking a spreadsheet, your financial infrastructure isn’t giving you what you need.

The theme underneath

These three numbers — energy exposure, interest rate sensitivity, and cash runway — aren’t random. They share a common characteristic: they’re all about visibility into what’s coming, not what’s happened.

The economic forecasts for 2026 are cautiously positive. Deloitte projects GDP growth of 2.0% in 2025-26, accelerating to 2.2% in 2026-27. The OECD expects growth to reach 2.3% by 2027. Consumer spending is recovering. Business conditions are stabilising.

But aggregate conditions don’t determine individual outcomes. 2025 saw over 14,000 businesses enter external administration — a record. Many of those businesses failed in an economy that was technically improving. They failed because they couldn’t see their problems early enough to act.

The opportunity in 2026 isn’t to predict the macro environment. It’s to build the visibility that lets you respond to whatever happens.

Sources

MYOB Business Monitor December 2025; CommBank/UNSW SME Survey 2024; NAB SME Business Survey Q3 2025; RBA Statement on Monetary Policy August 2025; Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook September 2025; OECD Economic Survey Australia 2025; Canstar Interest Rate Forecast December 2025; Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.